The new Black Friday Cyber Monday consumer expectations

Everything evolves. Black Friday was once considered a one-day sale following American Thanksgiving when many shoppers were home from work and thinking of Christmas presents for their family. Retailers steeply discounted trendy consumer goods and everyone who wanted to take part in the sale would flock to their local stores.

As the years went on, Black Friday became a weekend-long event. Then retailers adopted Cyber Monday when online shopping took off. Now, the holiday is its own season and a global phenomenon largely divorced from American Thanksgiving. Shoppers have evolved with the season to expect a longer season, more personalized marketing, and a multi-channel shopping experience.

A new Braze consumer survey shows retailers may not be meeting the moment. Only 9% of surveyed consumers said brands exceeded their expectations during the 2025 BFCM season. The holiday season is growing, and retailers are in fierce competition for wallet share. Agentic AI can help exceed those shopper expectations but only when paired with deep, data-driven personalization.

As marketers start building their Black Friday Cyber Monday campaigns, here’s what to think about and how to respond to the evolving season.

Longer season risks marketing fatigue

BFCM is expected to start earlier and last longer than in previous years. Many consumers have struggled economically this year. Braze found that only 14% of surveyed consumers plan on increasing their spending this holiday season, and consumer confidence is wavering. The longer season may give many shoppers more time to evaluate their options and feel more comfortable finding meaningful value, which could be good for both consumers and brands.

There are risks inherent to a longer season. BFCM is the most impactful time for retailers, meaning consumers will see more and bigger traditional ads, influencer campaigns, and social media trends. Making sure your message resonates through all that noise will be harder than it’s ever been. In this landscape, 1:1 personalization is not an option, it’s a requirement.

Deloitte says 47% of global consumers are “value seekers.” But value means something different for every individual shopper. To truly shine this BFCM, marketers will need to transform first-party data into a true understanding of what value means to each shopper. Is it quality, convenience, loyalty perks? Building 1:1 campaigns that can answer these questions may not be easy, but it’s the winning formula when so many companies will still make the mistake of sending blanket discounts and hoping that’s enough to motivate shoppers.

The phygital trend continues

BFCM sales will grow across in-store and online options this year. eMarketer projects a 6.6% growth in eCommerce sales this year, slightly higher than the 4.4% seasonal growth for the retail sector estimated by NRF. What we can see is a strong interest in online and in-store options as shoppers start on a brand’s website, discovering new products or searching for personalized offers through the store’s app, then finishing purchases at physical locations.

The clear formula for success in this environment starts with unifying data in a way that allows marketers to successfully create seamless digital and physical experience. More than 80% of surveyed shoppers expect seamless experiences this year. This is the new “phygital” reality. Brands need to understand customer intent, wherever they shop, and show up with marketing messages that resonate.

Let’s say a mother of two is looking at hockey equipment for her kids this holiday season. She looks for new sticks and helmets online but doesn’t have time to complete her purchase. Next time she’s near a physical location, she gets an app notification reminding her of both items. The notification shows the items are in inventory and she receives a tailored discount specific to her previous purchases. It even shows how many loyalty points she can receive for buying her new gifts.

Every consumer has a unique experience shopping with their favorite brands. This year, very few shoppers will stay with one channel, stay exclusively online, or shop only in-store. The brands who can unify their data and deliver exceptional experiences will have a leg up on those who lag behind.

The rise of agentic retail

2026 may be the year of AI agents. The Braze retail consumer engagement review found that 43% of shoppers are likely to use AI agents to shop this year. AI intermediates like chatbots are a growing concern for retail executives, with 71% of surveyed retail leaders saying intermediaries have weakened their ability to connect with customers.

Consumers flock to intermediaries like AI chat bots because they are overwhelmed with information. Large language models learn from a consumer’s interactions and begin personalizing their answers once a conversation starts. Personalization is the differentiator because so few retail brands get it right, and shoppers cannot keep up with all the marketing messages they see, especially during the holiday season.

While agentic intermediaries may concern some brands, others are leveraging agents to strengthen relationships with shoppers by unifying data, optimizing valuable KPIs, and working quickly to build sophisticated engagement campaigns. AI may seem like a threat to some, but agents are already helping brands get closer to customers. This year’s BFCM will be the year brands can use agents to supercharge their campaigns through agentic strategies.

Final thoughts

The more things change, the more they stay the same. BFCM is growing in length while retail marketing tactics are growing in sophistication. But neither fact changes what shoppers want from brands. They want to be understood, for brands to customize engagement strategies to their unique needs and values. The brands who succeed in exceeding these expectations can succeed this year, whatever the economy may throw their way.